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1
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- We analyze the importance of
elections in terms of parties and the electorate (what parties are, not
what they do)
- We are interested in how
elections reflect changes in partisanship and party alignments.
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2
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- Political Stability and Change
- Shifting voter attitudes and partisanship
- Presidential versus Congressional Elections-Aggregation and
Disaggregation
- Broad Voter Preferences if Aggregation is Present
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3
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- The most prevalent type of election can be classified as a
"maintaining election,"
"one in which the pattern of partisan attachments prevailing
in the preceding period persists and is the primary influence on the
forces governing the vote.“
- Presidential Elections 1936-1948 were maintaining elections.
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4
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- Most elections fall into the maintaining category, a fact significant
for the political system because such elections result in political
continuity and reflect a lack of serious upheavals within the electorate
and government. Maintaining elections result in the continuation of the
majority political party.
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5
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- At certain times in American history, what V. O. Key, Jr., has called
"critical elections" take place. He discusses this type of
election, which results in a long term realignment of the electorate and
reflects basic changes in political attitudes.
- Key points out that critical elections were taking place at the local
level during the 1920s and in the presidential election of 1928 that
culminated in the long term shift from the Republican to Democratic
party in 1932.
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6
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- Apart from maintaining and critical elections, a third type, in which
only temporary shifts take place within the electorate, occurs, which
can be called "deviating elections."
- For example, the Eisenhower victories of 1952 and 1956 were deviating
elections for several reasons, including the personality of Eisenhower
and the fact that voters could register their choice for president
without changing their basic partisan loyalties at congressional and
state levels. Deviating elections, with reference to the office of
president, are probable when popular figures are running for the office.
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7
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- In "reinstating elections," a final category that can be added
to a typology of elections, there is a return to normal voting patterns.
- Reinstating elections take place after deviating elections as a result
of the demise of the temporary forces that caused the transitory shift
in partisan choice. The election of 1960, in which most of the
Democratic majority in the electorate returned to the fold and voted for
John F. Kennedy, has been classified as a reinstating election.
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8
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- Parties must effectively aggregate interests to make the classification
of elections meaningful
- Electoral classifications based on presidential not congressional
elections
- Presidential voting patterns do not necessarily reflect broad political
currents, especially in divided government that deviating or even
maintaining elections produce.
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9
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- Perhaps the basic differentiating characteristic of democratic order
consists in the expression of effective choice by the mass of the people
in elections.
- The electorate occupies, at least in the mystique of such orders, the
position of the principal organ of governance; it acts through
elections. An election itself is a formal act of collective decision
that occurs in a stream of connected antecedent and subsequent behavior.
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10
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- Among democratic orders elections, so broadly defined, differ enormously
in their nature, their meaning, and their consequences. Even within a
single nation the reality of election differs greatly from time to time.
A systematic comparative approach, with a focus on variations in the
nature of elections would doubtless be fruitful in advancing the
understanding of the democratic governing process.
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11
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- Even the most fleeting inspection of American elections suggests the
existence of a category of elections in which voters are, at least from
impressionistic evidence, unusually deeply concerned, in which the
extent of electoral involvement is relatively quite high, and in which
the decisive results of the voting reveal a sharp alteration of the
preexisting cleavage within the electorate.
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12
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- Moreover, and perhaps this is the truly differentiating characteristic
of this sort of election, the realignment made manifest in the voting in
such elections seems to persist for several succeeding elections.
- All these characteristics cumulate to the conception of an election type
in which the depth and intensity of electoral involvement are high, in
which more or less profound readjustments occur in the relations of
power within the community, and in which new and durable electoral
groupings are formed.
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13
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- A question occurs, for example, about the character of the consequences
for the political system of the temporal frequency of critical
elections. What are the consequences for public administration, for the
legislative process, for the operation of the economy of frequent
serious upheavals within the electorate?
- What characteristics of an electorate or what conditions permit sharp
and decisive changes in the power structure from time to time?
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14
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- Viewed from the contrary position, what consequences flow from an
electorate which is disposed, in effect, to remain largely quiescent
over considerable periods? Does a state of moving equilibrium reflect a
pervasive satisfaction with the course of public policy? An indifference
about matters political? In any case, what are the consequences for the
public order?
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15
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- What are the consequences when an electorate builds up habits and
attachments, or faces situations, that make it impossible for it to
render a decisive and clear-cut popular verdict that promises not to be
upset by caprice at the next round of polling?
- What are the consequences of a situation that creates recurring, evenly
balanced conflict over long periods?
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